Why is it urgent?

Estimated Timeline

• Median researcher consensus: AGI likely 2030-2050
• Capabilities accelerating exponentially (GPT-2 → GPT-3 → GPT-4)
• Alignment research: Behind, underfunded, understaffed

Current Ratio

• Capabilities funding: ~$200 billion/year
• Alignment funding: ~$500 million/year
• Ratio: 400:1

The Race Problem

• Geopolitical competition (US vs China)
• Corporate competition (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta)
• Incentive: Being first, not being safe
• Moloch: Race to the bottom

Resources

• AI Timelines - Alignment Forum
• Racing to the Precipice - GovAI
• The AI Arms Race - Future of Life Institute